Viral economics: an epidemiological model of knowledge diffusion in economics

摘要

We model the diffusion of economic knowledge using an epidemiological model of susceptible, exposed, infected/inspired, and recovered populations (SEIR). Treating peer-reviewed journal publications as evidence of a scholar's infection/inspiration with energy for an idea or theme, we estimate the coefficients of a four-equation simultaneous system for each of 759 sub-fields of economics. Results show that some sub-fields of economics (or viruses, here) grow endogenously much faster than others, and just over half have basic reproduction properties sufficient to ensure survival without the annual addition of new protégé scholars.