Numerical hindcast of extreme waves

摘要

The cyclone wave parameters are predicted using Young’s parametric hurricane wave prediction model. The input cyclone tracks for this work are obtained from Fleet Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Center, USA. Extreme value analysis is carried out to obtain the wave heights and periods for 1 in 5, 10, 50 and 100 years return periods, respectively. The deep-water hindcast wave corresponding to 100 years from probable directions are allowed to propagate to Visakhapatnam coastal waters using nearshore spectral wind-wave mode. The offshore wave height for one in 100-year return period is 11.9 m, and the corresponding nearshore wave height at 10-m water depth varies between 4.6 and 5.6 m depending on the directional spreading. Weibull distribution is chosen to fit the 24 cyclonic data sets over a total period of 30 years (September 1972 to November 2002). This paper demonstrates usefulness of Young’s wave model for deep-water extreme wave hindcasting. Further, the results of the present study would be highly useful for assessing the design wave height for Visakhapatnam coast.