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A new viewpoint on risk control decision models for natural disasters

机译:自然灾害风险控制决策模型的新观点

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This study describes a critical assessment of the risk control decision model from a methodological perspective and identifies major shortcomings with the employment of enhanced formal evaluation and decision-making methods. This in turn could have major applications for natural disaster risk control. The methodology follows the description of interpretive structural modeling (ISM), which is an interactive learning process in which a set of different and directly related elements is structured to form a comprehensive systemic model. The next step explores the potentials of different mathematical programming approaches in order to improve decision making, i.e., for the development of an economic utility constrained-maximization model that addresses the issue of optimal budget allocation under a trade-off framework. Several aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed within the context of an economic utility constrained-maximization model with a major focus on the importance of risk and uncertainty in research evaluation, and how the strategy determines the insurance and risk control plans.
机译:这项研究从方法论的角度描述了对风险控制决策模型的关键评估,并通过采用增强的正式评估和决策方法来识别主要缺陷。反过来,这可能会在自然灾害风险控制方面有重要的应用。该方法遵循解释性结构建模(ISM)的描述,该结构是一个交互式学习过程,其中将一组不同且直接相关的元素构造为一个综合的系统模型。下一步探讨了各种数学编程方法的潜力,以改善决策制定,即开发经济效用约束最大化模型,该模型解决了在权衡框架下的最佳预算分配问题。在经济效用约束最大化模型的背景下,讨论了风险和不确定性的几个方面,重点是风险和不确定性在研究评估中的重要性,以及该策略如何确定保险和风险控制计划。

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