Inflation in Argentina during the 2000s

摘要

The paper presents a neo-structuralist econometric analysis of the monthly inflation rates. The model breaks down the CPI into different components based on their price-formation mechanisms. The basic breakdown defines three components: PFLEX (fruits and vegetables, 3.6% of the basket), PREGUL (prices regulated by the government, 20.1% of the basket) and PFIX (the rest of goods and services, 76.3% of the basket). PFIX is the focus of the econometric analysis while PFLEX and PREGUL are considered exogenous. The explanatory variables are the monthly rates of: the price of bovine cattle at the domestic market, the international soy price, the price by ton of imported intermediate goods, the nominal exchange rate, the average wage of workers that are registered in Social Security and the productivity, measured by the GDP by employed worker. There was an informal indexation mechanism in the labor market. Average monthly wages rose at annual rates that were almost always higher than the sum of past annual inflation plus the annual increase in productivity. The over-indexation of the unit labor cost was the main inflationary factor in the period. The inertial component, represented in the model by the previous monthly rate, determines 60% of the current rate.