Order of play advantage in sequential tournaments: Evidence from randomized settings in professional golf

摘要

In this paper we exploit naturally occurring randomized settings within a very large dataset of golf shots to test whether order of play matters in professional golf tournaments. We isolate two settings where professional golf competitors find themselves with virtually identical shots, implying the order of play is effectively random. These settings allow us to identify unbiased, causal estimates of the relevance of moving first or second in competition. We find robust evidence that the second-mover has a statistically (and economically) significant advantage, which we argue is consistent with a learning effect in competition.