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What has been accomplished twenty years after the Oreskes et al. (1994) critique? Current state and future perspectives of environmental modeling in the Great Lakes

机译:在Oreskes等人提出的二十年后,已经完成了什么。 (1994)批评?大湖区环境建模的现状和未来展望

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摘要

With well over 1000 citations, the Oreskes et al. (1994) paper stands out as one of the classical critiques of the veracity of the scientific methodology of models in earth sciences, arguing that the validation of models that deal with natural systems is inherently impossible. Going beyond the controversy of the "technical versus philosophical" meaning of validation, this viewpoint reflects the important notion that model outputs should be viewed through the prism of the underlying assumptions and that good model performance in one or more settings is not evidence for general applicability, but rather the start of a perpetual race for predictive confirmation. While the Oreskes et al.'s (1994) critique has been a defining moment of the broader appreciation of the challenges surrounding a model validation exercise the documented inadequacy of many models to address important societal issues reflects the fact that the field has advanced without the healthy dose of introspection required to obtain good science. An evidence of the latter assertion is the inconsistency that still characterizes the environmental modeling practice with respect to the methodological steps typically followed (Arhonditsis and Brett, 2004; Arhonditsis et al., 2006; Stow et al., 2009; Robson, 2014; Wellen et al., submitted for publication). After more than four decades of active modeling in the context of environmental management and policy analysis, many of the published aquatic ecosystem and watershed modeling studies still fail to report the results of predictive confirmation, goodness of fit statistics, and uncertainty analysis in the broader sense (Fig. 1a).
机译:有超过1000次引用,Oreskes等人。 (1994年)论文是对地球科学中的模型科学方法论的准确性的经典批评之一,认为对自然系统模型的验证从本质上讲是不可能的。超越了验证的“技术性与哲学性”含义的争议,这种观点反映了重要的观念,即应该通过基本假设的棱镜来查看模型输出,并且在一个或多个设置中良好的模型性能不能证明其普遍适用性。 ,而是为了进行预测性确认而进行的永久竞赛的开始。尽管Oreskes等人(1994年)的批评是对模型验证工作所面临挑战的更广泛理解的决定性时刻,但有文献记载的许多模型不足以解决重要的社会问题,这反映了一个事实,即在没有模型验证的情况下,该领域已经取得了进步。获得良好科学知识所需的健康自省剂量。后一种观点的证据是,在通常采用的方法步骤方面,环境建模实践仍存在不一致之处(Arhonditsis和Brett,2004年; Arhonditsis等人,2006年; Stow等人,2009年; Robson,2014年; Wellen)等,已提交出版)。在环境管理和政策分析的背景下进行了四十多年的主动建模之后,许多已发布的水生生态系统和流域建模研究仍未能报告广义的预测确认,拟合统计的优度和不确定性分析的结果(图1a)。

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    《Journal of great lakes research》 |2014年第3期|1-7|共7页
  • 作者单位

    Ecological Modeling Laboratory, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada;

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA;

    Environment Canada, Water Science and Technology, National Water Research Institute, Burlington, ON L7R 4A6, Canada;

    Ecological Modeling Laboratory, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada;

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