The changing face of utility forecasting

摘要

Dr Frank A Monforte, director of forecasting solutions at Itror, examines the role of forecasting under regulated energy markets, as well as gives a look towards the forecasting challenges utilities face with the advent of market liberalisation. Liberalisation is transforming the face of European energy markets. These newly formed competitive energy markets are driving a resurgence in energy forecasting tools that can predict accurately the demand for energy over the next hour, next day, next month or several years out. Prior to market liberalisation, energy forecasting was used in three main ways: for systems operations, financial forecasting, and long-term capacity planning. European utilities continue to face these forecasting challenges as a central part of their business, but with liquid competitive energy markets the link between an accurate forecast and the financial impact on a company is much more visible. This visibility is driving utilities to retool their existing forecasting processes.