Short-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook: Energy Supply and Demand Forecast for FY2012 and Forecasts for the International Oil and Gas Markets

摘要

2011 was a year of tight constraints in economic and production activities resulting from the damage to production capacity and disruption of supply chains (supply networks) caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, the downturn in consumer confidence, and the implementation of an order to restrict electricity consumption for the first time in 37 years. On the other hand, the world economy is gradually expanding, driven by the recovery of the United States and solid growth of emerging countries such as China. With the upturn of the external environment and the boost from reconstruction needs, the Japanese economy is expected to gradually recover in 2012. Energy consumption, which fell in 2011 due to the slump in economic activities following the Great East Japan Earthquake and the rise in awareness of energy conservation, is showing signs of rebound from last year with the recovery of the economy, reconstruction of production equipment and supply networks, and the easing of the mood of self-restraint, though people's propensity to save electricity and conserve energy appears to remain. Regarding the near future, the outlook for the European economy and the restarting of nuclear power stations in Japan remains highly uncertain. The issue of restarting plants is particularly worrisome due to the power shortage and its consequent impact on the Japanese economy which may result from the reduction in nuclear power generation capacity, although work is under way to restart the Ohi Nuclear Power Station Units 3 and 4 of Kansai Electric Power Company after all nuclear power stations in Japan were stopped in May this year. This report presents a forecast of the energy supply and demand in FY2012 based on the domestic and overseas situations outlined above. Looking overseas, the major disruption of energy supplies caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake was not the only one the world saw in 2011. Disruption also occurred outside the country, due most notably to the spread of a series of insurgencies called the "Arab Spring" in the Middle East and North Africa. These events are still continuing today, strongly affecting the energy supply of Japan both directly and indirectly. In addition to these factors, other uncertainties have emerged since the start of the year, namely concerns for global recession stemming from the financial crisis in Europe and the strengthened sanctions by the West against Iran for its alleged attempts to produce highly enriched uranium. Domestically, Japan is being forced to modify the direction of its nuclear policy, and is expected to increase its dependency on fossil fuels at least in the short- to mid-term. Based on these domestic and overseas conditions, this report presents an outlook for energy supply and demand, an overview of the international situation surrounding oil and natural gas, and a price forecast for the near future.