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Debris flows rainfall thresholds in the Apennines of Emilia-Romagna (Italy) derived by the analysis of recent severe rainstorms events and regional meteorological data

机译:碎片在emilia-romagna(意大利)的亚平宁人中流过降雨阈值,通过分析近期严重暴雨事件和区域气象数据来源

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摘要

Recent severe rainstorms events in October 2014 and September 2015 triggered more than a hundred debris-flows in the western part of the Apennines of Emilia-Romagna (Italy). In this work, we tested a novel method to define debris flows rainfall thresholds for the 2014 and 2015 rainstorms (which have been used as reference events) and to extend these results across the Apennines of Emilia-Romagna, making use of long-term rainfall data of the regional rain gauges network. Results are compared, for validation, to rainfall rates recoded during other past rainstorm-debris flows events (which have been used as validation events). At first, the method involves a spatial discriminant analysis between the spatial distribution of debris flows and the high frequency weather-radar rainfall data for the 2014 and 2015 reference events. The analysis defines rainfall cutoff values over rainfall durations from 30' to 6 h, related to verification indices in the ROC curves, which are used as debris flows rainfall thresholds. Exceedance ratios are calculated between the computed rainfall thresholds and the rainfall rates at 10 years return periods at corresponding rainfall durations computed for raingauges located in the areas affected by the 2014 and 2015 events. The ratios are then used as multipliers of the rainfall rates at 10 years return periods over rainfall durations from 30' to 6 h calculated for all other raingauges in the regional study area. To spatialize thresholds calculation to the regional scale, the computed thresholds are interpolated across the Apennines of Emilia-Romagna. The research resulted in the assessment of two-levels debris flows rainfall thresholds curves which seem to be adequate to discriminate rainfall rates recorded during past debris flows events used for validation. Discussion evidences advantages and limits of our approach, compares results to existing debris flows thresholds and highlights their possible use in a multi-stage warning procedure at regional scale. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.
机译:最近2014年10月和2015年9月的严重暴雨事件在Emilia-Romagna(意大利)的亚平宁人的西部地区触发了一百多个碎片流动。在这项工作中,我们测试了一种新的方法来定义2014年和2015年暴雨的降雨阈值(已被用作参考事件),并在艾米利亚 - 罗马纳的亚平诺中扩展这些结果,利用长期降雨区域雨量网络的数据。比较结果,用于验证,降雨率在其他过去的暴雨 - 碎片流动事件中重新编码(已被用作验证事件)。首先,该方法涉及2014和2015参考事件的碎片流量的空间分布和高频天气雷达降雨数据之间的空间判别分析。分析将降雨截止值与从30'到6小时的降雨截止值定义,与ROC曲线中的验证指数相关,用作碎片流量降雨阈值。在计算的降雨阈值和10年来的降雨期之间计算超过比率,在由2014年和2015年事件影响的区域的Raingauges计算的相应降雨持续时间内的10年回报期。然后将比例用作在区域研究区域的所有其他Raingauges的30'至6小时的降雨率超过10年返回期的降雨率的乘数。要将阈值计算到区域规模,所计算的阈值在emilia-romagna的亚平尼人中插入。该研究导致评估两级碎片流量降雨阈值曲线,似乎足以判断过去碎片流动用于验证的事件期间记录的降雨率。讨论证明我们方法的优缺点,对现有的碎片流量的结果进行了比较,并突出了在区域规模的多级警告程序中使用的可能性。 (c)2020由elsevier b.v发布。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Geomorphology》 |2020年第1期|107097.1-107097.21|共21页
  • 作者单位

    Univ Modena & Reggio Emilia Dept Chem & Geol Sci Via Giuseppe Campi 103 I-41125 Modena Italy;

    Univ Modena & Reggio Emilia Dept Chem & Geol Sci Via Giuseppe Campi 103 I-41125 Modena Italy;

    Emilia Romagna Reg ARPAE SIM Reg Agcy Prevent Env Viale Antonio Silvani 6 I-40122 Bologna Italy;

    Emilia Romagna Reg Reg Agcy Civil Protect & Terr Str Giuseppe Garibaldi 75 I-43121 Parma Italy;

    Univ Modena & Reggio Emilia Dept Chem & Geol Sci Via Giuseppe Campi 103 I-41125 Modena Italy;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Debris flows; Rainfall thresholds; Weather Radar; Raingauges;

    机译:碎片流动;降雨阈值;天气雷达;raingauges;

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