The emergence of an envisioned future. Sensemaking in the case of 'Industrie 4.0' in Germany

摘要

Technology-based, envisioned futures have a significant influence on the dynamics of technological development and, as a consequence, on societies. This paper uses the example of Industrie 4.0 in Germany to analyze why, how and under which circumstances such imagined futures tend to emerge and stabilize. For my conceptual lens, I combine concepts from organization studies (OS) and science and technology studies (STS), especially since the latter offers a variety of concepts describing technological futures. Drawing from these two fields, I bring together ideas from concepts like "imaginaries" (Jasanoff & Kim, 2009), "visions" (Dierkes, 1988; Dierkes et al., 1996), "expectations in technological development" (van Lente, 2000; van Lente & Rip, 1998a), and "organizing visions" (Swanson & Ramiller, 1997). I argue that for a more detailed understanding of how envisioned futures emerge, an analysis of the role and the activities of organizations in such processes is essential. Weick's concept of sensemaking and the related ideas of enactment and sensegiving can start to fill this gap. Based on this theoretical framework, the paper argues that envisioned futures become successful if multiple, heterogeneous organizations engage with this envisioned future early on. To be able to enroll a wide range of organizations, envisioned futures have to be inherently vague to allow and enable sensemaking from very different perspectives. Combining these ideas enables a better understanding of the early phases of future-making processes and the implications for the governance of technology development based on envisioned futures.