The Great Crash of 1929: A Reconciliation of Theory and Evidence

摘要

Ali Kabiri (Lecturer in Economics at the University of Buckingham and a Research Associate at the LSE Financial Market Group) has added to the literature on the 1929 Great Crash a new and interesting book that also speaks to the current debate on the recent global financial crisis. As the title suggests, the book is a mixture of modern financial theory and fresh historical evidence. Readers will find three main original contributions: new data for the 1900-30 period; a valuation model for the aircraft industry (the high-tech industry of the time); and an analysis of returns for a new investment vehicle (an index tracking fund). To avoid the pitfalls of hindsight, Kabiri uses the information and the models that were available to investors at the time, in order to check whether a bubble could be identified ex ante.