An Analysis of Extremely High Nineteenth-Century Winter Neonatal Mortality in a Local Context of Northeastern Italy

摘要

Beginning in the mid-seventeenth century, infant mortality in Veneto (a region in northeastern Italy) began to increase, starting at 250‰ and rising to 350‰ by the mid-nineteenth century—one of the highest levels ever recorded in modern Europe. This dramatic change—in a period of worsening economic conditions—was due to variations in winter neonatal mortality, which was 3–4 times higher in Veneto than in other areas with similar winter temperatures (such as England). We combine micro-data on neonatal mortality with daily data on temperatures for a specific context during the period of 1816–1868 characterized by very high neonatal mortality. We find that the risk of death was particularly intense during the first week of life and strongly correlated with external minimum temperature. Through a comparison of these results with other findings in the literature, we suggest that the increase in winter neonatal mortality in Veneto could have principally been caused by the deteriorating physical condition of mothers, lessening the ‘quality’ of infants who consequently were quite susceptible to cold temperatures.