Economic development and climate change

摘要

Bet Bolin's paper offers us a helpful rapid tour of the state of climate science (Bolin, 1998). There has been warming, and it looks as if it is due to human intervention. If this is correct, then thee will be more warming, and it is as well to remember that the process does not stop in 2050 or 2100 simply because we choose those years as 'benchmarks'. But there are con- siderable uncertainties. For some, uncertainty means we should do more research but little or nothing by way of policy because the payoffs could be negative.