Decomposition analysis of CO_2 emission intensity between oil-producing and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries

摘要

The need to decompose CO_2 emission intensity is predicated upon the need for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Such analysis enables key variables that instigate CO_2 emission intensity to be identified while at the same time providing opportunities to verify the mitigation and adaptation capacities of countries. However, most CO_2 decomposition analysis has been conducted for the developed economies and little attention has been paid to sub-Saharan Africa. The need for such an analysis for SSA is overwhelming for several reasons. Firstly, the region is amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, there are disparities in the amount and composition of energy consumption and the levels of economic growth and development in the region. Thus, a decomposition analysis of CO_2 emission intensity for SSA affords the opportunity to identify key influencing variables and to see how they compare among countries in the region. Also, attempts have been made to distinguish between oil and non-oil-producing SSA countries. To this effect a comparative static analysis of CO_2 emission intensity for oil-producing and non oil-producing SSA countries for the periods 1971-1998 has been undertaken, using the refined Laspeyres decomposition model. Our analysis confirms the findings for other regions that CO_2 emission intensity is attributable to energy consumption intensity, CO_2 emission coefficient of energy types and economic structure. Particularly, CO_2 emission coefficient of energy use was found to exercise the most influence on CO_2 emission intensity for both oil and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries in the first sub-interval period of our investigation from 1971-1981. In the second subinterval of 1981-1991, energy intensity and structural effect were the two major influencing factors on emission intensity for the two groups of countries. However, energy intensity effect had the most pronounced impact on CO_2 emission intensity in non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries, while the structural effect explained most of the increase in CO_2 emission intensity among the oil-producing countries. Finally, for the period 1991-1998, structural effect accounted for much of the decrease in intensity among non-oil-producers, while CO_2 emission coefficient of energy use was the major force driving the decrease among oil-producing countries. The dynamic changes in the CO_2 emission intensity and energy intensity effects for the two groups of countries suggest that fuel switching had been predominantly towards more carbon-intensive production in oil-producing countries and less carbon-intensive production in non-oil-producing SSA countries. In addition to the decomposition analysis, the article discusses policy implications of the results. We hope that the information and analyses provided here would help inform national energy and climate policy makers in SSA of the relative weaknesses and possible areas of strategic emphasis in their planning processes for mitigating the effects of climate change.