Effect of Cross-Border E-Business Policy on the Export Trade of an Emerging Market: A Dynamic Study of Institutional Support to Cross-Border E-Business at Chinese Pilot Cities

摘要

Policies to offer institutional support to cross-border E-business are processed in the development of export at emerging markets. This research estimates the effect of institutional support to cross-border E-business on export trade in an emerging market by a difference-in-difference model. It is found that the institutional support to cross-border E-business at the pilot cities had a positive effect on export trade. Further, a decision tree of predictions to export is developed, based on the cross-border E-business policy and regional economic factors shown to have effect on export, and the complex network of interconnections across the cities in different conditions is revealed. The estimation of probability for export increase based on the effect of cross-border E-business policy is further performed by Bayesian model. This research can be helpful to policy makers and business administrators in understanding the effect of cross-border E-business policies on export at emerging markets.