Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy

摘要

Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model, where as a result, inflation differ between the private sector and the central bank. We show that output and inflation change markedly when the central bank responds to private sector inflation expectations rather to their own. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.