Effect of tourism on economic growth of Sri Lanka: accounting for capital per worker, exchange rate and structural breaks

摘要

We explore the nexus between tourism, exchange rate and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period 1980-2014. Using the augmented Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65-94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure whilst accounting for structural breaks using Bai and Perron (J Appl Econ 18(1):1-22, 2003) multiple break tests, the short-run and long-run association and impacts are examined. The results confirm the presence of a long-run association between tourism receipts (% of GDP), exchange rate, capital per worker and output per worker. The regression results show a 1% increase in tourism receipts results in a 0.03 and 0.06% increase in output per worker in the short-run and long-run, respectively. A unidirectional causality is noted from tourism to output per worker; from exchange rate to output per worker and capital per worker; and from output to capital, in per worker terms. Finally, we note that although structural breaks periods have negative association with economic growth, they are not statistically significant.