Structural equation modeling as a tool to develop conservation strategies using environmental indicators: The case of the forests of the Magdalena river basin in Mexico City

摘要

A primarily descriptive approach has been used to develop studies in Mexico that use indicators to incorporate information on the conservation state of ecosystems. Consequently, these studies are not well supported by ecological data, or they lack an analysis of socio-ecological integration, making it difficult to implement the strategies derived from these conservation plans. Structural equations models (SEM) help with the understanding of direct and indirect interactions between variables and, consequently, allow the detection of root causes of change. In this study, a method to integrate indicators in relation to a pressure-state-response model was developed and applied to a forest in Mexico City. We developed the model using 21 environmental units, 17 state indicators of biodiversity (evaluating three aspects of the ecosystem: structure, composition and function), 14 environmental indicators (abiotic variables) and 6 anthropogenic pressure indicators. Subsequently, based on multicollinearity tests, redundant indicators were eliminated. A canonical correspondence analysis was carried out to establish the relationship between different indicators and the possible ecological connections of the SEM. With the previous information, an a priori model of the influence of pressure and environmental indicators on the structure, composition and function of the ecosystem was developed.