Quantifying the relationship between urban development intensity and carbon dioxide emissions using a panel data analysis

摘要

As a factor associated with urban management and planning, urban development intensity (UDI) could in fact form the basis for a new rationale in coordinating urban sustainable development and reducing CO_2 emissions. However, existing literature engaging in the task of quantifying the impacts of urban development intensity on CO_2 emissions is limited. Therefore, the goal of this study is to quantify the relationship between urban development intensity and CO_2 emissions for a panel made up of the five major cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing and Guangzhou) using time series data from 1995 to 2011. Firstly, this study calculated CO_2 emissions for the five selected cities and presented a comprehensive index system for the assessment of the level of urban development intensity based on six aspects (land-use intensity, economic intensity, population intensity, infrastructure intensity, public service intensity and eco-environmental intensity) using locally important socioeconomic variables. Panel data analysis was subsequently utilised in order to quantify the relationships between urban development intensity and CO_2 emissions. The empirical results of the study indicate that factors such as land-use intensity, economic intensity, population intensity, infrastructure intensity and public service intensity exert a positive influence on CO_2 emissions. Further, the estimated coefficients suggest that land-use intensity is the most important factor in relation to CO_2 emissions. Conversely, eco-environmental intensity was identified as having a major inhibitory effect on CO_2 emission levels. The findings of this study hold important implications for both academics and practitioners, indicating that, on the path towards developing low-carbon cities in China, the effects of urban development intensity must be taken into consideration.