An Integrated Mathematical Model of the Large Marine Ecosystem of the Barents Sea and the White Sea as a Tool for Assessing Natural Risks and Efficient Use of Biological Resources

摘要

An integrated mathematical model of the Barents Sea and White Sea Large Marine Ecosystem proposed as a tool for assessing natural risks and efficient use of the biological resources is considered. The model includes the following main blocks (modules) of (a) oceanographic variation and biological productivity; (b) trophodynamics and fishery management; (c) environmental and biota pollution; (d) social and economic development; and (e) assessment of ecological risks from marine activities. The results of using the integrated model for assessing hydrological variability, long-term dynamics of ecosystem productivity, and assessment of fishing pressure on the most important fishery species of the Barents Sea are presented. A new scheme of zoning of the Barents Sea area performed under the supervision of Academician G.G. Matishov with respect to geomorphological and hydrological factors is proposed. A comparative scheme of distribution of the estimated gross primary production in the Barents Sea area in the second half of the twentieth century and in the 2010s is presented. The energy balance of the Barents Sea ecosystem in the late 1900s and early 2000s is calculated by the model of trophodynamics. The necessity of using mathematical models of the ecosystem instead of single-species models during the calculation of fishing pressure on the populations is suggested. To estimate fishing mortality, it is necessary to take into account not only spatial effects related to the features of a fish life cycle and distribution of fishing pressure, but also the impact of climate factors and ecosystem interactions. The use of recent information technologies both in the field of accumulation and analysis of the primary data and in the area of their subsequent generalization for the diagnosis of past changes makes it possible to understand better the possible consequences of the existing plans for developing and use of available natural resources for the Barents Sea and White Sea LME based on the experience (sometimes negative) of recent years and expected climate changes.