Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Agriculture in Russia

摘要

1. The global temperature growth over the last century is estimated to have been 0.3-0.6℃. It is expected that temperature growth in the 21st century will be as much as 2-5℃. If this is correct, many countries will face serious difficulties in agricultural production. The available estimates, along with consideration of the combined effect of CO_2 concentration increase and soil fertility decrease, show that the expected reduction in grain production in Russia may be as high as 15%. However, these calculations are based on climate change assessments accepted prior to 1990 and that were later substantially revised. According to other estimates, climatic warming will have a beneficial influence on agricultural production.