Spatiotemporal Scales of Warming Observed in Siberia

摘要

The present climatic variations are caused by many factors of heliospheric, geospheric, biospheric, and anthropogenic origin. Their simultaneous account in mathematical modeling requires overcoming great difficulties related not only to computational procedures but also to the necessary verification of the modeling results. Although many of these difficulties have been overcome, further development of the theory of sensitivity of the models of climatic systems to small external forcing with regional peculiarities and the general regionalization of the existing climate models should enhance the significance of empirical data for individual regions of the planet. Moreover, the accumulated series of instrumental data on many regions of the planet exceed several times the needed time interval (30 yr), within which the average meteorological values characterize the climatic system. Statistical processing of such series allows us to verify the existing mathematical models not only for specific points of the calculated trajectory, but also for significant periods.