Empirical Estimates of the Influence of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors on the Global Surface Temperature

摘要

The influence of different natural (solar and volcanic activity) and anthropogenic (carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere) factors on the growth of the Earth's global surface temperature (GST) is analyzed on observational evidence by the estimation of Granger causality and a new method proposed for evaluating the long-term effect. The statistically significant influence of all three factors on GST is revealed in the analysis of sequences of data. The contribution of the anthropogenic factor is most important, whereas the influence of solar and volcanic activity is weaker by an order of magnitude.