New Data on the Regularities of the Earthquake Manifestation in the Baikal Seismic Zone and Their Forecast

摘要

It was found that the deformation waves that are characterized by the stable vectors of phase velocities, periods, and lengths are the triggering mechanism for the activation of ruptures in the Baikal Seismic Zone (BSZ). They also determine the time sequence of the source appearance and the most probable places of their locations in the segments of the BSZ and its fractures. The conceptual basis discussed here allows us to realize a short-term forecast of the place and time of the earthquake occurrence in the BSZ segments and its individual fractures over periods of reliable extrapolation of the established regression regularities time-place.