Blockings in the Northern Hemisphere and Euro-Atlantic Region: Estimates of Changes from Reanalysis Data and Model Simulations

摘要

Anomalously hot weather in summer 2010 in European Russia was initiated by the long-term (about two months) blocking of zonal circulation in the middle-latitude troposphere in the Northern hemisphere (NH) [1,2]. Could we have expected such long blocking? Are current models able to describe the corresponding processes? Will these events occur in the future? To answer these questions, we analyzed the blocking activity in the NH atmosphere using reanalysis data and model simulations for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries under different scenarios of anthropogenic impact. According to the results obtained, the current climatic models make it possible to reconstruct regional anomalies related to atmospheric blockings and their variations.