Probability of Occurrence of a Very Strong Earthquake in the Central Kuril Region

摘要

On November 15, 2006, the M_w8.3 Simushir earthquake occurred within the limits of the seismic gap in the Central Kuril Region. Priortothe Sim earthquake, the structure of the seismic gap was studied during two geological—geophysical expeditions 11—3]. The obtained data allowed us to identify the zones of transverse faults in the island arc, to compile the block structure scheme of the gap, and, on the basis of a keyboard model [4], to predict the earthquake occurrence and to calculate the possible tsunami wave [2, 5].