Application of probability and statistics methods in arrangement of railway transportation

摘要

Complex economic and mathematical methods are becoming more widespread in training of specialists in the field of railroad communication arrangement. The purpose of this study is to develop an effective methodology for mathematical training of railway transportation specialists on the basis of active training methods. The article deals with application of probabilistic and statistical methods to problems in design of railway transportation, for example, fluctuations in loading of railway stations and distribution of the time interval between arrival of trains. Using the example of the flow of arriving trains, the technology of testing the hypothesis that the time between arrival of trains is distributed according to the exponential law and the hypothesis of independence of events in the flow is displayed in detail. When confirming each of these hypotheses, it must be concluded that the flow of trains arriving at the station is according to the simplest (Poisson’s) model. This conclusion allows using the apparatus of Markov chains to describe a random process.