In recent years, M oilfield has entered into high water cut stage. Two main problems are imposed in the process of development including sharp water cut rising rate and rapid oil production decline. These problems are difficult to solve, which may bring other problems. In order to slow down production decline rate and control the rising rate of water cut, it is necessary to control water injection rate. However, oil production rate can be affected if water injection rate is too low to provide enough water volume for maintaining reservoir pressure. A method to calculate reasonable injection–production ratio and predict water cut is provided in this paper. Its main mechanism is to resolve above contradictions by calculating reasonable water injection rate. Firstly, an equation to calculate reasonable injection–production ratio is deduced by material balance equation. It considers several parameters including rate of pressure recovery, water cut and other production indexes. Secondly, reasonable oil production rates and water cut of future 10?years are predicted. Oil production is predicted by the law of production decline, and water cut is predicted by regression equation of water drive characteristic curve. Lastly, reasonable water injection rates of next 10?years are calculated through predicted injection–production ratios and liquid production rates. Taking M oilfield as an example, this paper presents a method to determine reasonable water injection rate of multilayer sandstone water drive reservoir.
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