Economic analysis of the risk in the Egyptian crops structure focusing on the waterresources

摘要

Limited resources of irrigation water represent one of challenges sustainable agricultural development, as they relate to the achievement of the irrigation water which the crops composition needed to grow (different crops) that make water resource management and rational use our critical target must be achieved, and so out the agriculture sector of the most economic sectors used for water resources It consumes about 85% of the total available water resources for Egypt. The problem has been narrowed research in the difficulty of extrapolating effects the risks that might be exposed to crop structure as a result of the instability of irrigation water and its impact on cropping structure imbalance which is based on the population food which need and providing production. Therefore the research aimed to estimate the crops composition which did minimizing risk, and minimizing the consumption of irrigation water, with the development of some of the recommendations relating to the efficient Use and rationalizing irrigation water in Egyptian agriculture. The method was used linear programming written to minimize the risk to the Egyptian crop structure, also relied on data from published and unpublished issued the official authorities governmental organizations such as Ministry of Agriculture and land reclamation and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics during the period (2005-2010). The results showed that the actual total profit margin for crops structure in 2010 was about 47.937melliar pounds, while showing that the total proposed profit output of the solution the risk model was about 48.076 milliard pounds, reaching the difference between total actual profit and proposal profit about 149 million pounds, by an increase of 0.31% from the actual Egyptian crop structure in 2010. And the total amount of the actual irrigation water for crops structure in 2010 about 38.051 milliard cubic meters, while showing that the total proposed amount of irrigation water resulting from the risk solution model was about 38.003 milliard cubic meters, with a difference between the total actual amount of irrigation water and proposed around 47.9 million cubic meters, and by decreasing the amount of 0.13% for actual Egyptian crop structure in 2010. finally set some recommendations on the efficient use and rationalization of the Egyptian irrigation water in agriculture is need to reduce the cultivation of crops with water consumption and high gradually replaced crops consuming less water, and installing irrigation systems developed in the old land and new to maximize the use of the irrigation water, rain and floods. And also continue in the policy of re-use of agricultural drainage water for irrigation after mixing it with Nile water under condition the validity of water mixed in terms of salinity and the degree of pollution after treatment processing, and attention to awareness public information for farmers to raise the level of realization on the optimal of water efficient use, and farmers' participation in the work of irrigation development, and the establishment of sewage ringed covered, and management and maintenance irrigation and drainage systems.