Analysis of Tourism Generation Incorporating the Influence of Constraints Based on a Scobit Model

摘要

Tourism generation is one of the most important aspects but it remains as an under-researched area in tourism demand forecasting and relevant behavior analysis. This study analyzes individual's decision on whether to go on vacation or not. First, a number of constraints that prohibit tourism participation are explored. Second, individual's choice of tourism participation is studied based on a Scobit model, which includes a skewness parameter to relax the assumption made in binary logit model that the sensitivity of individuals to changes in explanatory variables is highest for those who have indifferent preferences over participation and non-participation. We also introduce the tourism constraint components into the model based on the theoretical consideration in the existing literature. The empirical application is conducted using the data stemmed from a web survey conducted in Japan in 2010. Using this data the impacts of several attributes on participation decisions in tourism are investigated.