Future Forecast of Trade Amount and International Cargo Flow in the APEC Region: An Application of Trade-Logistics Forecasting Model

摘要

When discussing a roadmap for realizing trade liberalization and transport efficiency, a comprehension of the "quantitative effects" of the related policies could be highly supportive and suggestive. The authors developed a successive prediction system on trade value and international cargo flow that provides an effective tool for quantifying the impacts of trade and transport policy on international cargo shipping. In this paper, a forecasting system called "Trade and Logistics Forecasting System for the APEC region" is developed in such a way as to support the discussion for the realization of trade liberalization and transport efficiency among the APEC economies.