Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency ofprecipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards asthe related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, weinvestigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, focusing on the projections under amoderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of theKNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatialresolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthlyprecipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed theStandardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the StandardizedPrecipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale.Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity,and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to bothindicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow whatrecently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severedrought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, morefrequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041–2070) andeven more in the far future (2071–2100). This tendency is more evident usingthe SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects theexpected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe.On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occurin northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because theprecipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET)rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, theSPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while theSPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.
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