Inversionistas o especuladores? evidencia de burbuja especulativa en el mercado accionario Colombia, 2004-2006

摘要

This study provides evidence that part of the spectacular price increase of theColombian Stock Market in the last five years corresponds to a speculative bubble.Since early 2004, the estimated return for the Colombian stock index in the longterm is just 0% to 2% annually over the return of the 10 year-TES (Colombiangovernment bond). This analysis is based on the Gordon model and toleratesreasonable adjustments in the assumptions. Additionally, we examined alternativeexplanations to the dramatic rise in prices over the last five years, but found theminconsistent with the evidence. On the contrary, we found evidence of speculativetrading by local individuals, institutions and foreign investors. Overall, the resultsof this paper suggest that speculation, as opposed to long-term investment, hasbeen the pervasive force on the Colombian Stock Market over the last 10 years, asasserted by Vlez-Pareja (1999).