Evacuation can be learned

摘要

It is difficult to predict how people will actually act when evacuated in an emergency. Where will they head? When will they leave? Which route will they take? Research into evacuation is split between examining behavioural aspects and traffic management, explains researcher Adam Pel. The models used by Pel and his colleagues are based on what they learn from questionnaires, observations during evacuations in other countries and their own studies. Their models elucidate aspects such as how much traffic there will be at certain junctions, how quickly the traffic will flow with specific traffic light configurations and where (and how long) the tailbacks will be. All of this information could potentially help the authorities. "The authorities will want to delay the decision to evacuate for as long as possible, until more information is available and certainty regarding what is actually going to happen," says Pel. If the model indicates bottlenecks, you could give people specific instructions. Traffic control measures can be used to manage the situation, public transport can be mobilised, or timetables adjusted.