Predicting demand for inter-library loan requests

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model that can be used to forecast the demand for the inter-library loan (ILL) requests. Accurate estimates of demand are valuable for assisting researchers in their research endeavors. Design/methodology/approach - Data were gathered at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga for a period of 48 months from July 2008 to the end of June of 2012. Using these data, a centered moving average with seasonal variation model was formulated for forecasting the demand for the inter-library loan. These forecasts were then compared with the actual values to determine the accuracy of prediction. Findings - Centered moving average with seasonal variation model proved to be a good predictor of the demand for the inter-library loans. The model proved to be a very good forecasting tool as the actual values seem to follow the forecasts very closely. Originality/value - It is very important to be able to forecast the demand for the inter-library loans. Researchers constantly demand material for their research and librarians try to fulfill their demands. If the demand can be forecast with some degree of accuracy, the process can be expedited.