Consumer Outlook – Colombia – Q4 2014

摘要

We forecast real private consumption to expand by 4.4% in 2014 andrn4.9% in 2015, up from 4.0% in 2013, as a two-year long householdrndeleveraging cycle comes to an end this year. While householdrnspending growth has moderated since peaking in late 2011, wernbelieve that improving labour dynamics, combined with record lowrninterest rates, will drive a re-acceleration in private consumptionrngrowth this year (see 'Consumer To Strengthen As Labour DynamicsrnContinue To Improve', February 19). In addition, rising accessrnto finance as banking sector networks expand across the countryrnwill also support stronger credit-fuelled consumer spending (seern'Rapidly Expanding Banking Sector Still Has Room To Go', Septemberrn17 2013).