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Runoff response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed SW China

机译:中国西南典型喀斯特流域对气候变化和人类活动的径流响应

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摘要

This study aims to reveal the runoff variation characteristics of long time series in a karst region, analyse comprehensively its different driving factors, and estimate quantitatively the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to net runoff variation. Liudong river basin, a typical karst watershed in southwest China, is the study site. Statistical methods, such as linear fitting, the Morlet wavelet analysis, normalized curve and double mass curve, are applied to analyse the runoff of the watershed. Results show that the runoff in the karst watershed during the research period exhibits a three-stage change and the abrupt change points are the years 1981 and 2007: (1) 1968–1980, the runoff initially exhibited a trend of sustained decreasing and then an abrupt fluctuation. The runoff was obviously destroyed through precipitation-producing processes. Improper land utilisation and serious forest and grass destruction intensified the fluctuation variation amplitude of the runoff. (2) 1981–2006, the changing processes of runoff and precipitation exhibited good synchronism. Precipitation significantly affected runoff variation and human activities had a slight interference degree. (3) 2007–2013, the fluctuation range of runoff was considerably smaller than that of precipitation. The significant growth of forest and grassland areas and the increase in water consumption mitigated runoff fluctuation and greatly diminished runoff variation amplitude. According to calculation, the relative contribution rates of precipitation and human activities to net runoff variation with 1981–2007 as the reference period were −81% and 181% in average, respectively, during 1968–1980, and −117% and 217% in average, respectively, during 2007–2013. In general, the analysis of runoff variation trend and of the contribution rate of its main influencing factors in the typical karst watershed for nearly half a century may be significant to solve the drought problem in the karst region and for the sustainable development of the drainage basin.
机译:这项研究旨在揭示喀斯特地区长期序列的径流变化特征,综合分析其不同的驱动因素,并定量估算气候变化和人类活动对净径流变化的贡献率。柳洞流域是中国西南地区典型的喀斯特流域,是该研究地点。采用线性拟合,Morlet小波分析,归一化曲线和双质量曲线等统计方法对流域径流进行分析。结果表明,研究期内喀斯特流域的径流呈现出三个阶段的变化,突变点为1981年和2007年:(1)1968-1980年,径流最初呈现出持续减少的趋势,然后逐渐减小。突然的波动。径流显然是通过降水产生过程而被破坏的。土地利用不当和严重的草木破坏加剧了径流的波动变化幅度。 (2)1981–2006年,径流和降水的变化过程表现出良好的同步性。降雨显着影响径流变化,人类活动的干扰程度较小。 (3)2007-2013年,径流的波动幅度明显小于降水的波动幅度。森林和草地面积的显着增长以及用水量的增加减轻了径流波动,并大大减小了径流变化幅度。根据计算,以1981-2007年为基准期,降水量和人类活动对净径流变化的相对贡献率分别为1968-1980年的平均-81%和181%,而1981-1980年的-117%和217%。 2007-2013年期间的平均水平。总体而言,分析典型喀斯特流域近半个世纪的径流变化趋势及其主要影响因素的贡献率,对于解决喀斯特地区的干旱问题和流域的可持续发展具有重要意义。 。

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