The Impact of Upstream Sub-Basins’ Water Use on Middle Stream and Downstream Sub-Basins’ Water Security at Country-Basin Unit Spatial Scale and Monthly Temporal Resolution

摘要

Water, in most of the transboundary river basins, is a bone of contention among their riparian states. Taking this into account, this article assessed the monthly impact of upstream water withdrawal on the water security of middle stream and downstream sub-basins at a country-basin mesh spatial resolution. Roughly 2.18 billion people in 442 sub-basin areas experience water stress intensification by less than 1% throughout the year. In addition, 2.12 billion people in 336 sub-basin areas experience water stress level change, from no water stress to one of the water stress categories, for at least one month as the result of upstream withdrawal. Even though there is a clear upstream impact in many of the basins, water disputes with severe social, economic, political, and environmental consequences are nonexistent. This might be an indication that grave water disputes are the result of complex socio-economic and political interactions, not merely because of water deficits due to upstream water withdrawal. Therefore, understanding this relationship is crucial in identifying inflection points for water conflicts within transboundary river basins.