日本樱花花期观测与规律分析

摘要

为了探索日本樱花Prunus yedoensis Mats花期的基本规律，对湖南省森林植物园樱花园内的日本樱花进行了连续7 a(2007～2013年)的花期观测，并对观测数据进行了相关分析和线性回归分析。结果表明：日本樱花始花日平均日序数是13.9，对应日期是3月14日,落花日平均日序数是29.9，对应日期是3月30日，盛花期平均日序数是20.0～28.9，对应日期是3月20日～3月29日，盛花期持续时间平均为9.9 d；始花日与3月的平均最高气温和1～2月的平均最高气温呈显著负相关，与1～3月的平均最高气温呈极显著负相关；利用开花前期1～2月的平均最高气温建立始花日线性关系模型，线性拟合结果表明，1～2月的平均最高气温每升高1℃，开花日期提前2.4 d，利用该模型对近7年的始花日进行了预报检验，平均误差为2.9 d。%In order to explore the basic law of lfowering phase in Prunus yedoensis, lfowering phase in P. yedoensis was continually observed for 7 years (2007-2013) in Hunan Forest Botanical Garden, and the data was analyzed by using the methods of correlation analysis and linear regression analysis. The results show that ifrst lfower date is March 14th, and its average ordinal is 13.9;lfower falling date is March 30th, and its average ordinal is 29.9;full-lfowering period is from March 20th to March 29th, its ordinals are 20.0-28.9, and the average duration is about 9.9 days. First lfower date has signiifcantly negative correlation with average highest temperature of March and average highest temperature of January to February, and it has highly signiifcantly negative correlation with average highest temperature of January to March. Linear relationship model of ifrst lfower date was set up based on average highest temperature of January to February at pre-lfowering period. The linear iftting results show that if average highest temperature of January to March is increased by 1 ℃, ifrst-lfowering date will be 2.4 days ahead of time. The model was tested through forecast veriifcation of the ifrst-lfowering dates from 2007 to 2013, and the mean error was 2.9 days.