城市轨道交通建设项目规划方案风险评估方法

摘要

By analysing risk factors in the planning, construction and operation phases of an urban rail project, the paper puts forward an assessment indicator system for urban rail transit projects. By adopting multi-factor decision methodology which utilizes both quantitative and qualitative analysis approaches, the paper established a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process risk assessment model. The methodology has been validated in a new line named Rl in Beijing and the results showed that the line' s risk is at a higher level. The validation process will be served as a good guidance to the later planning, design, construction and operation of Line Rl.%分析城市轨道交通规划方案存在的风险因素及其对建设阶段、运营阶段可能产生的风险,构建城市轨道交通建设项目规划方案的评价指标体系,并采用定性与定量相结合的多因素决策方法,建立基于模糊层次分析方法的城市轨道交通建设项目规划方案风险评估模型.对北京市新规划R1线进行实证分析,得出该线路风险等级较高的结论,为下一步如何做好R1线规划设计、建设、运营等工作提供借鉴.