基于Narayan在2006年提出的入境旅游客源市场收敛假说,首次对中国的收敛性进行检验.文章选取中国2006年至2015年来自16个主要客源国的月度时间序列数据,首先,在考虑含有结构变动的情形下,进行面板和单变量单位根检验来分析中国客源市场总体层面和个体层面的收敛情况;接着,进一步通过Johansen协整检验,验证单位根检验结果;最后,分别按地理和经济因素划分俱乐部,检验俱乐部内部的收敛情况.实证研究结果表明,中国的入境旅游客源市场既不满足总体收敛,也不满足俱乐部收敛,表明我国的入境客源市场多样性较差,且存在一部分主要客源市场的潜力尚未被完全开发.而市场营销方面,中国的客源市场不适合无差异营销和俱乐部营销.这一研究结果对中国入境旅游市场的开发和营销具有一定的政策指导意义.%In view of the importance and rapid development of China's inbound tourism industry, the issue of planning and developing China' s inbound tourism market has become a hot topic in recent years. Narayan originally proposed the convergence hypothesis of the inbound tourism source markets to appraise the effectiveness of policies aimed at attracting visitor arrivals from any one tourism source market, and the concept of convergence is defined as a reduction in tourist arrivals'differential, which is calculated as the difference between total tourist arrivals to a country and tourist arrivals from a particular tourist source market. The testing of this hypothesis has now become an important frontier in tourism economics. To our knowledge, the existing studies on the convergence hypothesis of inbound tourist markets are lack of the China case, so this paper aims to make up for this gap. We analyze the convergence properties of tourist arrivals to China using monthly observations from January 2006 to December 2015 of sixteen major tourism source markets, including South Korea, Japan, the United States, Russia, Mongolia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, India, Thailand, Canada, Australia, Indonesia, Germany, the United Kingdom and France. The test of convergence can be divided into overall convergence and individual convergence. The latter characterizes convergence between a pair of economies i and j, while the former is defined by that every pairs within a set of I economies exhibits convergence. Individual convergence can be tested by univariate time series analysis, while overall convergence are tested by panel time series analysis. To test for convergence, initially, CMR univariate unit root test and Hadri panel unit root test are used, which allows one to incorporate up to two structural breaks endogenously, to explore the convergence in China's tourist source markets from both overall and individual perspectives. Subsequently, cointegration test is applied to test the robustness of univariate unit root test. Finally, tourist markets are divided into different groups according to geographic and economic factors respectively to explore whether club convergence exists. The empirical results suggest that the convergence hypothesis does not hold for China. Hence, there appears to be no equilibrium relationship towards which visitor arrivals to China from its major source tourist markets have a tendency to gravitate, indicating that the diversity level of China' s inbound tourist markets is low. Accordingly, China is still over-dependent upon some specific tourist markets, and there are some certain source markets with untapped potential. Significantly, our analysis of club convergence also points to the lack of convergence among smaller groups of source markets clustered on the basis of similar geographic or economic factors. In generally, the results suggest that China' s inbound tourist markets are not suitable for undifferentiated promotion and club marketing.
展开▼
