舰船研制复杂度及其度量方法

摘要

Taking the risk in researching and developing equipments as the point of departure,it is definitely that the root of "prolonging the schedule,reducing the capability and raising the outlay" were the high index in the technical scheme of researching and developing equipments through practical analysis, which could measure from complexity level and readiness level; taking the complexity level of researching and developing as the main object, and introduced the complexity level concept into researching and developing naval ships, which would include the static and dynamic complexity, and discussed further the concept, meaning, measurement method about them; It is useful that evaluating the risk through regression analysis,NN etc on the basis of measuring and calculating to determine the complexity level and readiness level,which could offer some assistant decision-making in equipments argumentation.%以装备研制风险分析为出发点,结合案例明确了装备研制技术方案指标过高是研制中“降性能、拖进度、涨费用”等现象产生的根源,应从研制复杂度和成熟度对其进行分析；针对研制复杂度,引入复杂度的概念并结合海军舰船研制的实际情况,将舰船研制复杂度划分为静态和动态2种,对其概念、含义及度量方法分别进行探析；在研制复杂度和成熟度确定的基础上,可结合回归分析、神经网络等方法对装备研制风险进行有效评估,为武器装备论证工作提供辅助决策.