基于灰色残差 GM（1，1）模型理论的矿井涌水量预测

摘要

Using grey system prediction theory,this paper selected the bygone years water inflow measured data of Wutongzhuang mine as the sample data,established the residual GM(1,1)model,and made statistical calculations to bygone years water inflow data using related calcula-tion method,concluded that the fitting data,and comparing with the measured results,established at the same time the correction model,ulti-mately determined the appropriate model for prediction mine water inflow.%采用灰色系统预测理论，选取梧桐庄矿历年涌水量实测数据为样本数据，建立了残差 GM（1，1）模型，并用相关计算方法对历年涌水数据进行统计计算，得出拟合数据，与实测结果进行比较同时建立修正模型，最终确定其为预测矿井涌水量的合适模型。