P气田基于地质模型的储量不确定性分析

摘要

地质建模的最终目的是建立反映地质认识的地质模型，并对储层的不确定性以及由此带来的储量不确定性进行定量表征。南海P气田正处于开发的前期研究阶段，井点资料少，储层的纵横向变化快，储量不确定性强。该文以地质模型为载体，探讨了该气田地质储量不确定性分析的方法，总结了相似气田地质储量不确定性分析的一般方法：通过对变量的敏感性分析，确定影响该气田地质储量的主要变量，以此为基础通过拉丁超立方概率分析法进行储量评价及地质模型的优选，最终确定构造和气水界面的变化是影响该气田储量的主要因素，P50是该气田可动用储量。该方法为前期研究阶段的储量动用提供了新的思路。%The ultimate goal of geological modeling is to set up a reasonable geological model and characterize the uncertainty of reservoir and reserves. The South China Sea P gas field is at the stage of early study and its well data is lack, the lateral and vertical variety of reservoir is very quick, so the uncertainty of the reserve is very strong. This paper discussed the method for the uncertainty of reserve based on geology model, then the general method a⁃bout the uncertainty of similar gas field has been summarized. Through analysis on the sensitivity about the variable, the main variable has been determined. Based on this study, reserve evaluation and optimization of geological model have been done by Latin Hypercube Sampling. At last the change of structure and OWC is defined as the main fac⁃tor affected the reserve of the gas field, and P50 is the producing reserve. The method provide a new thought for re⁃serve utilization at the stage of early study.