期权视角下高速公路BOT项目风险分担策略研究

摘要

BOT model has been widely used in the field of highway infrastructure in China in recent years.The paper studies the effective way to mitigate the traffic risks using the government minimum and maximum guarantee based on real options.A series of contracts may be signed between government and private investors to ensure the revenues that the private investors obtain.Government guarantees can be seen as a series of European set and call option combinations,and Black-Scholes option pricing formula can be used to calculate the option value and to determine the minimum and maximum incomes in BOT contracts.Finally,the risk-sharing strategy is applied to highway infrastructure projects to illustrate the method above.%近年来BOT模式在我国高速公路建设领域得到了广泛的应用,从实物期权的双边保证视角研究高速公路BOT项目有效分担交通量风险的策略.政府和私人投资者签订双边收入保证特许协议,规定政府担保的项目运营收入上限和下限,以分散风险.政府担保可以看作是一系列欧式看跌期权和看涨期权的组合,运用Black-Scholes期权定价公式计算期权价值进而确定运营收入下限和上限.最后将该风险分担策略应用于某高速公路基础设施项目进行案例分析.