基于Logistic模型的中国国家能源消费总量预测研究

摘要

An optimized logistic model of the China national energy annual consumption (CEAC),was established in this paper.Based on the open statistic data of CEAC from 2003 to 2010,the CEAC in the next two decades was simulated and analyzed by our model.The CEAC in 2015,2020,2030 were predicted to 3.846 billion tons of standard coal,and 4.113 billion tons of standard coal,and 4.25 billion tons of standard coal,respectively.And the elasticity of energy consumption of China will decline year by year according the simulation results.The development trend of China's energy consumption was pointed out directly,and several political suggestions were given in our paper.%建立算法优化后的中国国家能源年度消费总量Logistic模型,并以2003年至2010年中国国家能源消费年度统计数据为基础,对中国未来20年的能源消费情况进行研究和预测,2015年、2020年、2030年分别为38.46亿吨标准煤、41.13亿吨标准煤和42.50亿吨标准煤,能源消费弹性系数呈逐年下降趋势,指出我国能源消费发展趋势,提出我国能源政策建议.