山东省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系及驱动因素

摘要

利用Tapio脱钩模型研究山东省2000-2012年能源碳排放量与经济增长之间的关系，并应用LMDI分解法的加法和乘法两种形式对碳排放量的驱动因素进行分解。研究结果表明：山东省在“十五”期间碳排放量呈快速增长阶段，“十一五”期间碳排放量的增长速度减缓。2000-2012年碳排放与经济增长之间的关系经历四种脱钩状态：2000-2001年为强脱钩，2001-2005年为扩张负脱钩，2005-2006年为扩张连接，2007-2012年为弱脱钩。此外，经济规模效应是碳排放量增长的主要因素，能源强度效应是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素，而能源结构效应对碳排放的增长起微弱负效应。%This paper researches the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Shandong province from 2000 to 201 2 by using Tapio decoupling model.The LMDI method,both multiplicatively and additively is used to ana-lyze the driving factors which influence carbon emissions.The result show that the carbon emissions as a total increased at a rapid pace during the “Tenth Five”period and at a slow pace during the “Eleventh Five”period.The relationship be-tween carbon emissions and economic growth has gone through four decoupling stages:strong decoupling stage (2000 -2001 ),expensive negative decoupling stage (2001 -2005),expansive decoupling stage (2005 -2006)and weak decou-pling stage (2006-201 2).In addition,the rapid growth of economic scale is the major factor responsible for the increase of carbon emissions.Reduction of energy intensity has contributed significantly to emissions decrease,and the energy struc-ture has also contributed to the emissions decrease to some extend.