FDI与进口贸易的溢出效应--基于OECD国家与金砖五国的实证研究

摘要

First,based on the endogenous growth theory of Romer and Lucas,we try to use the framework of Caves, Globerm,Waldkirch and Nunnenkamp to establish the model,then test fixed and random effects by using 1 996-201 1 pan-el data of OECD countries and the BRICs. According to the Houseman test,we choose the fixed effect model. The results show that:during the period of 1 996-201 1 ,technology spillover of FDI and import trade exists in 31 countries;for coun-tries in different stages of economic development,technology spillover goes through different channels. In OECD,the effect of combination of FDI and human capital is greater than the effect of import trade. However,in BRICs,FDI combined with the human capital is far greater than the import trade. Besides,investment in research and development is significantly pos-itive to economic growth.%先以罗默和卢卡斯的内生增长理论为基础，沿用Caves、Globerm、Waldkirch 和Nunnenkamp 的分析框架建立模型；然后对OECD国家与金砖五国1996-2011年的面板数据进行固定效应和随机效应模拟；最终根据豪斯曼检验选择固定效应模型。研究结果表明：1996-2011年间，31个国家存在FDI和商品进口贸易的技术溢出效应；不同经济发展阶段和水平的国家，技术溢出效应的表现渠道不同，OECD国家的商品进口贸易与人力资本结合带来的经济增长效应大于FDI与人力资本结合所带来的效应，而金砖五国的FDI与人力资本结合的技术溢出效应远远大于进口贸易技术溢出效应，并且研发投入对经济增长存在显著正相关性。