供应链不确定性管理研究述评与展望

摘要

On the basis of collecting the domestic and foreign research papers about the uncertainty management in supply chain system,this paper uses co - word and cluster analyzer of the bibliometrics method to classify the papers into two top research topics,which are sources of uncertainty and optimization strategy of the supply chain,and three second research topics,which are supply uncertainty,demand uncertainty and supply & demand uncertainty,and fourteen third research topics,such as supply inventory,demand contracts,coordination,simulation,scenario planning etc. Then we use the h -b index method to analyze the research hot spots,and summarize these papers by classification based on the research top-ics. According to the current research and practice situation,from the aspects of complex network research,evaluation sys-tem design,actual response modeling and comprehensive optimization system construction,we put forward the further direc-tion of the uncertainty management in supply chain system.%在采集国内外供应链不确定管理研究文献基础上，运用文献计量学共词聚类法将其分为供应链不确定性来源、供应链不确定性优化策略2个一级研究主题，供应不确定、需求不确定、供需均不确定3个二级研究主题，供应库存、需求合约、协调机制、仿真优化、场景规划等14个三级研究主题，再借助 h - b 指数方法系统梳理研究文献，分析研究热点，依据研究主题进行归类综述，根据当前研究与实践情况，从复杂网络研究、评价体系设计、实际响应建模和全面优化体系建设等方面展望供应链不确定性管理的进一步研究方向。