中国经济发展与研发效率的互动关系--基于省际面板VAR模型的实证分析

摘要

通过面板VAR模型估计，基于2002－2011省际面板数据对中国经济发展和研发效率之间的互动关系进行分析，检验GDP增长、人力资本积累、产业结构升级和研发效率之间的面板Granger因果关系。分析认为研发创新带动经济发展作用的发挥需要完善科研监督体系确保研发经费的充分利用，和政府的优惠政策和激励机制，加强人力资本投资，优化人力资本结构，加大对高技术产业的投资，提高产业自主创新能力，推进高技术产业化和战略性高技术产业向主导性高技术产业转变。%Estimated by a panel VAR model,based on the 2002-201 1 provincial panel data,this paper analyses the in-teraction between China's economic development and R&D efficiency,and inspects panel Granger causality of GDP growth, human capital accumulation,industrial structure upgrading and R&D efficiency.We believe that we should complete the research supervision system to ensure the full usage of the R&D funding and government,and make preferential policies and incentives so that R&D and innovation can drive economic development.Moreover,strengthening human capital investment and optimizing the structure of human capital should be done.And in high-tech industries,investment and independent innovation ability need to be improved so as to promote the high-tech industrialization and shift strategic high-tech indus-try to the dominant high-tech industry.